Martin van Creveld, The Israeli
military historian has an article at his As I Please website by guest writer, Karsten Riise. Van Creveld is an intellectual of note. There is not much biographical information
about Mr. Riise on the web, but that Professor van Creveld hosts him is an
affirmation,
The article, The US Position is Untenable our current geopolitical
situation. An American who cares for his
homeland can only come to one conclusion.
Our country needs to bring all it's troops, planes and ships home...yesterday.
Neutralists who have watched our
country over the last several decades would have long come to the conclusion
that our huge overseas footprint is a waste.
Whether if it was “all the dominos will domino if we leave Vietnam,” to
“we must fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here,” it's
all been silly sloganeering.
Mr. Riise, probably either Dutch
or Dane, has not been subject to the propaganda that we Americanos have. His piece is thoughtful and discusses what's
wrong from different angles.
He begins with a graph and then
explains that the Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP is set to go from 75% to
146%. We neutralists are not all great
economists, and I think his date is off, but such a number in the future is
disturbing as the government usually underestimates the bad.
Should we be worried? Since the demise of the USSR, it has not been
the Nirvana we all hoped for. Adam Smith
said “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.” That was back in 1777. The Brits have managed to hold on with
varying fortune. Can we?
Most nations muddle through dumb
economic policies and then when they have no choice, do something stupider, or
by accident, something smart. We live in
hope.
Mr. Riise thinks I'm part of the
problem. I resent that. Just because I'm not as young as I once was,
and there are more like me and less
young people to contribute to our happy and financially secure dotage is
not our fault.
“The biggest driver of the US Federal
debt is the aging of the US population. Today 15% of Americans are aged 65+.
This percentage will increase by two thirds, so that by 2060 about 24% of the
US population will be 65+. Until now, the USA has benefited from a young
population. The strain on medicare and social spending of an aging population,
even with the still limited entitlements in the USA, will be enormous.”
Hey we didn't ask to get old even
if we haven't grown up, and anyway, my government can kick a can down the road
like nobody's business.
Mr. Riise claims our infrastructure is third world level and
thus we are becoming un-competitive.
China is building high speed trains like crazy and we don't have
any. We do have Acela, but that is
limited in service, so we can give in on this one. Worse, Les Chinois will probably build our
high speeders when we finally get them.
Substandard education also makes us fall behind as our kids
are not going to have the skills in worldwide competition. At least, thanks to the current
administration, they will know the right bathroom to use.
As people are less and less middle class and the the tax base
shrinks, we can always make the rich pay their fair share and then some. How will that work out? According to the article, “Any attempts to
heavily taxate (fiscate) the upper 10% (or 0.1% !) of the US tax base will lead
to US dollar capital-flight, and acute economic crisis.”
Embarrassing to us here in the Exceptional Nation, is that “The risk
of starvation amongst the poorest in the USA remains high: In Obama’s
presidency, one in seven Americans (14%) face the risk of not having enough to
eat.” The store shelves are not
empty. Could somebody be cooking the
books on employment stats?
Well, there is an answer.
According to Paul Krugman and to paraphrase Edwin Starr's song, “War what is it good for,
the economy.”
So there's not been a real recovery, the kids are dumb, the middle
class is gone, the rich could leave, let's motivate the people with a
crusade. What could go wrong?
Putting aside that we have been on the warpath near a decade and a
half, much could go awry. Again, look to
Mr. Riise again as he has detailed the problem with the war for prosperity
plan.
The armament is in decline and shrinking. “The number of US ships
and combat aircraft is declining, their average service-age goes up and their
operativeness goes down.” New equipment
is often white elephant stuff.
“In absolute strength levels, the American military is standing
still or going backwards. The US
military now delays military purchases in order to keep overall military
expenditures flat the next 5 years.”
That is the most ominous aspect. One hopes the poor GI in an outpost in
Afghanistan doesn't get asked to wait a couple of days into the next month for
his pay to stretch the budget. Will we
be able to afford the fuel for the last helicopter to pull him out when the
dénouement becomes obvious to even the most obtuse neocon?
Mr. Riise goes on to discuss how the
Russian and Chinese arms industries are out-competing us.
His comment that “China is gaining
the upper-hand in the Straight of Taiwan.” should give us all pause. Since the 50s the US Navy has made sure that
remnant of Chiang Kai Shek's regime would be safe and have an economic
miracle. More than six and a half
decades after the rump of China became our ward, it's coming a cropper.
Has it all been for naught? Does anyone believe we have a real chance to
pacify Afghanistan, and other than resources to exploit, why would we want
to? Iraq to become a Denmark style
paradise? Nah, ask any Iraqi if that is
possible, and he'll ask you how he can get to Denmark.
It ain't working and the king's
horses and men can't put it back together as there are going to be less and
less of them as we go forward.
So what is to be done?
A great conservative of the last
century said it best, “Come home America.”
Actually, George McGovern would be rolling in his grave at being
labelled in any sense a conservative, but the people who claim the label
wouldn't know what it meant if it bit them on the nose. The only true conservative or libertarian
military policy is defense of hearth and home.
We all know how it is going to end, we just don't know the day or hour.
“Bring 'em back alive.”
There has since been a rebuttal to Mr. Riise. I shall get around to reading it eventually. I have to say, however, in this century, life here in nowheresville has only gotten worse for my fellow lumpen countrymen, and without a change of direction, I don't expect it to get better.