John Bolton heads US Dept. of precrime - What is he smoking?

So the Syrian war is almost over, just Idlib to be taken and that's the game.  Some are desperate to see that not end with Assad in power.  What can be done?

With no evidence, John Bolton is saying that the regime is planning to use completely unnecessary chemical weapons on the remaining rebels.  Supposedly, the sainted White Helmets will be in place to swear that kids are dying in droves.

Un question, s'il vous plait, what has been the body count among the white helmets themselves?  If those lads are always in the thick of it, shouldn't there numbers be horribly diminished by the awful actions of the evil Assad?

During a search, there were numerous results for articles and posts citing their goodness.  How come it is difficult to find articles that come to the opposite conclusion, such as this one?

Let's hope for some sanity and that calmer heads prevail in the administration and at least one neocon is ignored.

We don't have to win in Syria, we don't need to be in the Middle East at all.

Mish Shedlock of Global Economic Trend Analysis and Patrick Armstrong of Russia Observer Display Common Sense-Nobody Will Notice

First, let's go with Mish.  You've seen all the ads, signs, bumper stickers telling us to support our troops.  Sometimes it will be accompanied with something saying that they are keeping us safe.  No one explains how some GI in an Afghan outpost is keeping us safe, but there it is.

Well Mish noticed:

This last weekend I saw a biker wearing a "support our troops" shirt. OK, what's the best way?
I know the answer. Do you?
The best way to "support the troops" is to not send them into stupid battles in places we ought not to be in the first place.
The War in Afghanistan is going on over 15 years. Yes, 15 years. WTF? For what?

The Neutralist has been asking the same question since 2008 on blogger.  No one cares to answer so it is good to see Mish make the point.

Now on to Patrick Armstrong.  In comments on Colonel Lang's Sic Semper Tyrannis  Mr. Armstrong replied to a comment:

Seriously, what vital national interest of the USA qua USA is threatened if Russia has a big influence in Syria? Or if Iran is a big player in its corner of the world? Or if Venezuela has a somewhat socialist government? Or if China polices trade going in and out of China in the South China Sea? Etc etc.

Hypothetically, we bring all the troops home.  What happens?  Does anyone believe that Russia starts the tanks rolling west until they are in Portugal?  Does anyone think China will build an invasion fleet?  Iran does something horrible?  Will Venezuela start running an efficeint non-kleptocracy?

The Neutralist, waiting for an answer since 2008.  Actually, since the Carter administration. 

U.S. Provides Assad's Forces the Equipment for a Whole Armored Brigade

Shocking news.  We have been told for a long time how the Syrian leader is the most evil man since Hitler.  Okay, we are told that about everyone, but he is less than a nice guy with that genocidal war in Yemen.  Oh, one forgets, that is being waged by our ally, the saintly Saudis.

Anyway, we did not plan on arming the Syrians, it just kind of happened...stupidly.

From a post at Sic Semper Tyrannis,

The FSA unicorms have surrendered enough equipment to the SAA in the last couple of weeks to equip an additional armored brigade once the Syrian Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (SEME - my neologism) and their Rooshians work it over.  Hey! We Americans under Obama's policy paid for all that.  At last someone will know what to do with it.  

Well Done!  Arming the FSA (Free Syrian Army) was always a joke.

Like all our post 1945 interventions, Syria is not working out well.  for us, it is a zombie war.  We have no reason to be there, but we shall stay anyway.

Bring the boys and girls home.

Eternal Recurrence - A Bad Policy Returns

Eternal Recurrence

It could be formulated as a law.  The longer a war goes on, the probability of a bad policy being resurrected approaches 1.

During the Vietnam War, the Johnson administration would be in need of more and more soldiers.  The pool of draftees was not sufficient.  According to a Salon article, “By 1966, President Johnson was fearful that calling up the reserves or abolishing student deferments would further inflame war protesters and signal all-out war. And so, even after McNamara began privately declaring the war was unwinnable, the defense secretary devised Project 100,000.”

Under the program, potential recruits who scored as Category IVs on entrance tests were allowed to enlist.  Cat IVs, to be charitable, had cognitive issues.

The project has been acknowledged a failure in that it was sold as a “Great Society” program that “would provide remedial education and an escape from poverty.”  There was little of either for the 354,000 men:

“...the recruitment program offered a one-way ticket to Vietnam, where "the Moron Corps," as they were pathetically nicknamed by other soldiers, entered combat in disproportionate numbers.  Although Johnson was a vociferous civil rights advocate, the program took a heavy toll on young blacks. A 1970 Defense Department study disclosed that 41 percent of Project 100,000 recruits were black, compared with 12 percent in the armed forces as a whole. What's more, 40 percent of Project 100,000 recruits were trained for combat, compared with 25 percent for the services generally.”

It’s plus ca change time and this iteration is even more creative.  We shall not be targeting the intellectually lame and halt.  Rather now, it will be the emotionally lame and halt who are called to the colors.

A November 12th, 2017 USA Today article noted; “People with a history of “self-mutilation,” bipolar disorder, depression and drug and alcohol abuse can now seek waivers to join the Army under an unannounced policy enacted in August, according to documents obtained by USA TODAY.”  

It might be impolite, if not politically incorrect to ask what could go wrong?  For some of us retrograde types, the words “German Wings” come to mind.  You might remember the pilot of that airline who missed his meds and pursued an alternative method of what could be considered a “hard landing?”

Unlike Project 100,000, the new dispensation is not being sold as a program to enhance the life of the unfortunate.  As noted above, it’s unannounced which means it’s not being sold at all.  In truth, the policy appears to have been ongoing according to USA Today: “To meet last year's goal of 69,000, the Army accepted more recruits who fared poorly on aptitude tests, increased the number of waivers granted for marijuana use and offered hundreds of millions of dollars in bonuses.”

That’s it, of course, there are problems meeting the numbers.  By now, anyone with a little more than average consciousness knows that we are not going to turn a corner in Afghanistan, that we shall never do any good in Syria and the real winners in Iraq may be those horrible Iranians.

So, what is the point?

The possible upcoming crusade on North Korea might not be a selling point either.  Thus, creativity in augmenting the number of troops will be necessary.

Should we be worried?  During my inglorious Vietnam era service, there was no dearth of Marijuana usage as well as other substances.  What were referred to at the time as “personal problems” were hardly non-existent.  It should be noted, we came in second place in that contest.

What is unspoken in this is that we have to be inventive in inveigling prospects to sign up.  The so-called “War On Terror” is at stake.  If finding sufficient warm bodies to volunteer becomes impossible, conscription would be the alternative.

The WOT ends the day the Donald or a successor announces a draft.

Do we arrive at the point Augustus reached when Varus lost a couple of legions and the Imperator could not draft replacements even when execution was the penalty for resistance?  Is the WOT so necessary that any warm body, native or foreign will be eligible fodder?

As it has been said, this war may never end, why would we not resurrect another bad policy?

Is this why Bannon was fired?

 "As Steven Bannon, President Trump’s former “Chief Strategist,” is quoted as saying, “There’s no military solution [to North Korea’s nuclear threats], forget it. Until somebody solves the part of the equation that shows me that ten million people in Seoul don’t die in the first 30 minutes from conventional weapons, I don’t know what you’re talking about, there’s no military solution here, they got us.”  That may explain why he was fired. "

 The above quote is from MAYDAY KOREA! by William R. Polk (Part 2)

William R. Polk went into the history of our Korean involvement in Part 1 (link here) and in Part 2 looks at the situation as it is and our options.  Both parts deserve a read by everyone.

Now, the Neutralist thinks Mr. Polk is a wise man, but believes the wisest policy is to leave.  We hope that Trump is playing a deep game in showing what a truly stupid policy is to get people on board with a smart policy.

Of course, the guy who said something smart had to go.


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On Afghanistan, Don channels George the elder

Remember how George the elder promised America no new taxes.  He thought his victory in an unnecessary and stupid war would allow him to betray his word to the electorate.

Well, Trump had been saying for years we should get out.  He did backpedal a bit during the campaign, but now in his speech gone all George the younger.

Maybe he has come three dimensional chess moves he is planning, but we must go on his words and they are not encouraging.

And the Ton Kin Gulf hoax award goes to The Donald

After campaigning as the peace candidate, well less war candidate, Donald Trump decided to show himself a tough guy.

Actually, he showed himself weak as a kitten.

With no proof, or even evidence he launched a not very effective strike agains a Syrian air base.  The president defended his decision by saying, “It is in this vital national security interest of the United States to prevent and deter the spread and use of deadly chemical weapons,”

Now, chemical weapons are not pleasant to contemplate and it is true, they are deadly as are bullets and depth charges and all the other instruments in the arsenals of most countries.  One should not want them spreading, but how is a small not so surgical strike serve our national interest?

In truth the whole justification is a lie and all in government who went along with should be ashamed of themselves.

If you disagree with the Neutralist, I urge you to visit Sic Semper Tyrannis and read some evidence of absence.

Martin van Creveld nails it and writes a neutralist article.

Military historian Martin van Creveld is always interesting and usually right.  Recently, he hit one out of the park.  On March 16, 2017 he addressed a post to our New President detailing the failures of the powers to order the world.  We quote:

"1944-1948. A few hundred active “terrorists” hound the British out of Palestine, leading to the establishment of the State of Israel.1946-1954. French troops are defeated in Indochina, leading to Vietnamese, Cambodian, and Laotian independence.1948-1960. British troops fail to hold Malaya and end up by withdrawing from the country. Thanks to a masterpiece of propaganda, the Brits make most of the world believe that they had actually won the war. But this does not prevent Malaysia from becoming independent state. 1950-1953, Western forces, operating under UN auspices, wage against North Korea and China. The outcome, stalemate, is probably the best that could have been achieved. 1953-1960. British troops fail to defeat the Mau Mau Revolt in Kenya, ending up by withdrawing from the country, which gained its independence. 1954-1962. The War in Algeria, which had been a French colony for well over a century, ends with a humiliating defeat for France. 1955-1960. An insurgency forces the British to give up Cyprus, which becomes an independent country. 1963-1967. Another insurgency forces the British to surrender Aden. Ditto. 1965-1972. The Second Vietnam War, which was the largest of them by far, ends with the decisive defeat of the US and its allies and their final withdrawal. 1970-1975. As part of the Second Vietnam War, the US invaded Cambodia. In 1975 it had to throw in the towel. With the US cowed and decolonization all but complete, major Western attempts to intervene in the developing world came to a halt. 1982-1984. A small continent of US troops enters Lebanon, but quickly leaves again after terrorists start blowing them up. 1991-1992. The US and its allies, provoked by Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait, go to war. In almost seventy years, this is the only campaign that resulted in a clear victory. As a result, President George Bush declares that the US “has overcome the Vietnam Syndrome.”1993.   The US and its allies send troops into Somalia. To absolutely no avail, except for turning that country into an even worse hell than it already was.2002-present. To avenge 9-11, the US and its allies invade Afghanistan. The resulting mess is still waiting to be cleared up. 2003-present. The US and its allies invade Iraq. Saddam Hussein is overthrown and, ultimately, killed. However, once again the outcome is a mess that has still not been resolved. 2005-present. French and British forces, initially supported by US cruise missiles, assist local militias in overthrowing Dictator Muammar Gadhafi. The outcome is the same as in Iraq. 2011-present. Small NATO contingents take part in Syria’s murderous civil war, but achieve practically nothing. Thanks in part to Russian aid, the side whom the US and its allies oppose, i.e. President Assad, seems to be gaining the upper hand. Are you listening, President Trump?"

Sadly, It appears that the man who campaigned on getting along with Russia and trying to dial back the world cop is probably not.

Martin van Creveld may not be a neutralist, but he has written an excellent neutralist column

The Neutralist does not know if Southfront is independent, but State's John Kirby is a song and dance man and they caught him

The "Russia is always bad crew" at State were caught by Southfront and have to obfuscate and do it poorly.

Come on people, just answer the questions, even if your answer sucks.

Vaudeville will never die while John Kirby lives.

Bear Baiting with thanks to Malcolm Pollack

The Neutralist periodically meanders over to Malcolm Pollack's Waka Waka Waka blog because it is usually a pleasure.  A few days ago, he wrote a post titled Bear Baiting.  it was not a pleasure to read, but it was a fine bit of work.

It was not a pleasure because it accurately described the state of our foreign policy as regards Syria and a headlong rush to confrontation with a nuclear power.

This is a piece that clearly the Neutralist can endorse and wishes he wrote.  Please read, it is short and to the point.

Bear-Baiting

OCTOBER 7, 2016 – 4:35 PM

From this morning’s NightWatch:

Russia-US-Syria: Russian relations with the US over Syria continue to worsen.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov said on 6 October, “Let me remind the so-called US strategists that the air cover for the Russian military bases in Hmeimim and Tartus is provided by S-400 and S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, whose range may come as a surprise to any unidentified flying objects.”

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused the West of protecting the al-Nusra Front. She said at a briefing, “So far we see in the actions of Western countries, first of all, not a concern about the humanitarian situation in Syria but a desire to protect Al-Nusra fighters and the forces and groups of fighters affiliated to them. To be even franker, not just to protect them but directly get them away from harm’s way.”

Comment: The statement by General Konashenkov apparently is a pre-emptive response to press reports that the US is considering approving air attacks against Syrian government forces. His response is a dare. The message is that the Russians will shoot first at long distance.

We are playing a very dangerous game here. There is no realistic path that ends in ousting Assad that does not pass through direct combat with Russia. Moreover, even the goal is a foolish one. What do we imagine would take his place?

I must also note the shameful hypocrisy of weeping for Syria’s people (and using it as a pretext for importing millions of them to the West) while having done everything possible to maintain a rough balance of power in this civil war, thereby prolonging it for years — during which time that miserable nation, and the innocent lives of millions of its people, have been blasted to rubble. Had we not stepped in to “help”, the thing would have been over in weeks or months, cities and antiquities now completely destroyed would still be standing, and the chaos of tribalism and jihad would not have had this vacuum to occupy. Whatever you may say about Bashar Assad, it should be obvious to even the most causal observer that life under his rule was better for most people — incomparably so — than life in Syria now. His regime may have been an affliction, but our efforts to cure it have killed the patient. Chaos is death.

A more enlightened worldview would see Russia — a great Christian nation, and one that has made priceless contributions to the treasure-store of Western civilization — as a natural ally in these perilous times. We have much in common, including ancient, existential enemies who gloat to see us fighting with with each other rather than uniting against them. Yet our stance toward Russia has been relentlessly bellicose, with our support of the Ukrainian revolution, and our actions in Syria, being only the most obvious examples.

One might imagine that, standing as we do upon the crumbling lip of a very dark abyss, and with such enlightened statesmen in charge, we would now move cautiously. One would be mistaken.

POSTED BY MALCOLM ON AT 4:35 PM, FILED UNDER FOREIGN AFFAIRS

USA, a day late country and many dollars short

Martin van Creveld, The Israeli military historian has an article at his As I Please website by guest writer, Karsten Riise.  Van Creveld is an intellectual of note.  There is not much biographical information about Mr. Riise on the web, but that Professor van Creveld hosts him is an affirmation,

The article, The US Position is Untenable our current geopolitical situation.  An American who cares for his homeland can only come to one conclusion.  Our country needs to bring all it's troops, planes and ships home...yesterday.

Neutralists who have watched our country over the last several decades would have long come to the conclusion that our huge overseas footprint is a waste.  Whether if it was “all the dominos will domino if we leave Vietnam,” to “we must fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here,” it's all been silly sloganeering.

Mr. Riise, probably either Dutch or Dane, has not been subject to the propaganda that we Americanos have.  His piece is thoughtful and discusses what's wrong from different angles.

He begins with a graph and then explains that the Federal Debt as a percentage of GDP is set to go from 75% to 146%.  We neutralists are not all great economists, and I think his date is off, but such a number in the future is disturbing as the government usually underestimates the bad.

Should we be worried?  Since the demise of the USSR, it has not been the Nirvana we all hoped for.  Adam Smith said “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation.”  That was back in 1777.  The Brits have managed to hold on with varying fortune.  Can we?

Most nations muddle through dumb economic policies and then when they have no choice, do something stupider, or by accident, something smart.  We live in hope.

Mr. Riise thinks I'm part of the problem.  I resent that.  Just because I'm not as young as I once was, and there are more like me and less  young people to contribute to our happy and financially secure dotage is not our fault.

“The biggest driver of the US Federal debt is the aging of the US population. Today 15% of Americans are aged 65+. This percentage will increase by two thirds, so that by 2060 about 24% of the US population will be 65+. Until now, the USA has benefited from a young population. The strain on medicare and social spending of an aging population, even with the still limited entitlements in the USA, will be enormous.”

Hey we didn't ask to get old even if we haven't grown up, and anyway, my government can kick a can down the road like nobody's business.

Mr. Riise claims our infrastructure is third world level and thus we are becoming un-competitive.  China is building high speed trains like crazy and we don't have any.  We do have Acela, but that is limited in service, so we can give in on this one.  Worse, Les Chinois will probably build our high speeders when we finally get them.

Substandard education also makes us fall behind as our kids are not going to have the skills in worldwide competition.  At least, thanks to the current administration, they will know the right bathroom to use.

As people are less and less middle class and the the tax base shrinks, we can always make the rich pay their fair share and then some.  How will that work out?  According to the article, “Any attempts to heavily taxate (fiscate) the upper 10% (or 0.1% !) of the US tax base will lead to US dollar capital-flight, and acute economic crisis.” 

Embarrassing to us here in the Exceptional Nation, is that “The risk of starvation amongst the poorest in the USA remains high: In Obama’s presidency, one in seven Americans (14%) face the risk of not having enough to eat.”  The store shelves are not empty.  Could somebody be cooking the books on employment stats?

Well, there is an answer.  According to Paul Krugman and to paraphrase Edwin Starr's song, “War what is it good for, the economy.”

So there's not been a real recovery, the kids are dumb, the middle class is gone, the rich could leave, let's motivate the people with a crusade.  What could go wrong?

Putting aside that we have been on the warpath near a decade and a half, much could go awry.  Again, look to Mr. Riise again as he has detailed the problem with the war for prosperity plan.

The armament is in decline and shrinking. “The number of US ships and combat aircraft is declining, their average service-age goes up and their operativeness goes down.”  New equipment is often white elephant stuff.

“In absolute strength levels, the American military is standing still or going backwards.  The US military now delays military purchases in order to keep overall military expenditures flat the next 5 years.”

That is the most ominous aspect.  One hopes the poor GI in an outpost in Afghanistan doesn't get asked to wait a couple of days into the next month for his pay to stretch the budget.  Will we be able to afford the fuel for the last helicopter to pull him out when the dénouement becomes obvious to even the most obtuse neocon?

Mr. Riise goes on to discuss how the Russian and Chinese arms industries are out-competing us. 

His comment that “China is gaining the upper-hand in the Straight of Taiwan.” should give us all pause.  Since the 50s the US Navy has made sure that remnant of Chiang Kai Shek's regime would be safe and have an economic miracle.  More than six and a half decades after the rump of China became our ward, it's coming a cropper.

Has it all been for naught?  Does anyone believe we have a real chance to pacify Afghanistan, and other than resources to exploit, why would we want to?  Iraq to become a Denmark style paradise?  Nah, ask any Iraqi if that is possible, and he'll ask you how he can get to Denmark.

It ain't working and the king's horses and men can't put it back together as there are going to be less and less of them as we go forward.

So what is to be done?

A great conservative of the last century said it best, “Come home America.”   Actually, George McGovern would be rolling in his grave at being labelled in any sense a conservative, but the people who claim the label wouldn't know what it meant if it bit them on the nose.  The only true conservative or libertarian military policy is defense of hearth and home.

We all know how it is going to end, we just don't know the day or hour.

If you don't like George, there's always Freda.

“Bring 'em back alive.”

There has since been a rebuttal to Mr. Riise.  I shall get around to reading it eventually.  I have to say, however, in this century, life here in nowheresville has only gotten worse for my fellow lumpen countrymen, and without a change of direction, I don't expect it to get better.