Talleyrand
said of the Bourbon dynasty "they had learned nothing and
forgotten nothing". It is said so often that it is a
commonplace. That does not mean it is never valid.
The
royal house still reigns in Spain and Luxembourg. As to their
learning and memory, who knows? What interests us here is that
another branch of the dynasty has arisen. We give you, Bob I of
Bourbon-Kaplan.
Robert
Kaplan is a well known writer most famous for his The Coming Anarchy.
It was a prediction that the world was going to hell in a handbasket
and it gained him no little notoriety. His reputation has only grown
and In
2011, Foreign
Policy magazine
named Kaplan as one of the world's "top 100 global thinkers."
His
day in the sun included plumping for the Iraq war. According to his
wiki page he ”participated
in a secret meeting convened by then deputy secretary of defense Paul
D. Wolfowitz,
at which he helped draft an internal government document advocating
the invasion of Iraq.
He
later concluded that the war had been a mistake and expressed deep
remorse for supporting it”
How
deep is that remorse. Well in a 2008 Atlantic article, he does
express it, but it sounds if there are a few weasel words. In Iraq:The Counterfactual Game he
posits that yeah it was bad, but it coulda been worse maybe, sorta if
we hadn't invaded. Of course in 2008, the disaster didn't look as
bad as it does today.
In
a bizarre last paragraph, he plays a disturbing numbers game.
“Most
fundamentally, does Iraq meet the parents’ test? Can you look
parents in the eye and tell them it was worth losing their son or
daughter over? As awful as it sounds, quantity matters here, for it
says much about the scope of violence that is unleashed for the sake
of a higher good. If there were, say, 500 sets of parents you had to
look in the eye, the answer might well be yes, it was worth it, given
where Iraq is today and what might have been had we not toppled
Saddam. But at more than 4,000 and counting, the answer for years to
come will still be no. Counterfactuals can only take you so far.”
At
what point would Bob believe the test a flunk, 600 troops 2,751,
3,999? In 2015, one hopes he realizes by now only one, as in the
American equivalent of the bones of Bismark's Pomeranian grenadier.
He
is still an interventionist, not so long ago calling for saving
Moldova,
not that the Moldovans really needed saving. It appears the Moldies
don't feel the need as much as our Bourbon scion thought.
The
man has failed up and continues to do so. He has just had a paean to
imperialism, published in Foreign Policy; The
Ruins of Empire in the Middle East.
Among
the imperial entities about whom he thinks positive thoughts is the
Ottoman Empire. He credits them with providing safe space for all
the diverse groups in their domain. When things went south under the
Young Turks it didn't work so well for the Armenians, but why
quibble. He also forgets the quaint practice of Devşirme or blood
tax. Young boys were stolen from mom and dad and forcibly converted
to Islam to serve in the Sultan's military or civil administration.
Several
times in the article he uses the word “collapse” to describe what
happens when such regimes, well, collapse. If they were so wonderful
they might not collapse. Some of them, Iraq and Libya did not so
much collapse as were pushed. The results have not been as sold.
It
is true that for certain periods of time various imperia have kept a
lid on violence, sometimes as deserts of peace, to mangle Tacitus.
It may be true that only the heavy hand works in the Middle-East. It
is also a verity that they all end, including the last western effort
of Sykes-Picot.
We
shall probably never know if they could sort themselves out without
us because we are, in terms of the old SNL skit, the creature that
wouldn't leave. Our Bourbon-Kaplan played his part. He remembers a
lot, but did he learn anything? His last paragraph says it all.
“Back
then it was states at war; now it is sub-states. Imperialism bestowed
order, however retrograde it may have been. The challenge now is less
to establish democracy than to reestablish order. For without order,
there is no freedom for anyone.”
Come
back Saddam, all is forgiven.
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