On to Persia

So oil is up about $11 on Israeli war rumors. What would happen if there were an actual attack? I am no economist. I like to think of myself as curious about my world. Still, I am not interested in finding out if the worst case is true.

Something that causes the strait of Hormuz to possibly close cannot be good for us. Sooner or later, it can't be good for Israel.

The Israeli's should be consulting their historian, Martin Van Creveld. His article, The World Can Live With a Nuclear Iran, in the Forward is worth a read before sending the jets to Persia. Mr. Van Creveld is right. The Islamic Republic is not much militarily and won't be anytime soon. So they make a primitive nuke. How do they deliver it.

So why worry if these guys are not much in our way. Just another, oh what is the word I'm looking for......cakewalk. True no planes will rise to meet us. Any tanks are probably rusty. My guess, and it's only a guess, is that we've talked and talked about this that the Persians are listening and thinking and may have a surprise. If it's mining the straits, well, that's not high tech and is doable.

During the Yom Kippur war, Israel ripped up the middle and across the canal. If you've read Liddell-Hart you know a frontal attack is the most difficult operation and most wasteful of soldiers. The way the Israelis were able to do this was through meticulous intelligence. It may have been one of the greatest military operations in history to overcome the problems of the direct approach and change it to Liddell-Hart's beloved indirect approach. Of course it was completely secret.

Osirak was brilliant and secret as well.

Lebanon, twice were there too many telegraphed punches. As to the looming Iranian adventure, not too much of that loose lips sink ships out there. If the Iranians are not watching and planning, they are the dumbest people ever.