Stratfor is Channeling The Neutralist

In our last post, On to Persia we noted that the Israelis were telegraphing their possibly intended punch. Now, telegraphing a punch is a theatric practice to let the audience know that you intend to hit the other actor. In real life this is not done. You smack the other guy quickly before he smacks you, or in the case of fans of the movie, Million Dollar Baby, she smacks you.

Well, Mr. George Friedman, impresario of Stratfor has written an article, Mediterranean Flyover: Telegraphing an Israeli Punch? He also noticed the Israeli's are yelling, "This time, I'm gonna do it. No, this time, I really mean it." He comes up with a few alternative scenarios but in the end thinks it's a bluff.

We tend toward this latter theory. Frankly, the Bush administration has been talking about an attack on Iran for years. It is hard for us to see that the situation has changed materially over the past months. But if it has, then either Israel or the United States would have attacked — and not with front-page spreads in The New York Times before the attack was launched. In the end, we tend toward the view that this is psychological warfare for the simple reason that you don’t launch a surprise attack of the kind necessary to take out Iran’s nuclear program with a media blitz beforehand. It just doesn’t work that way.

We hope George and Stratfor are right.

If anyone who reads The Neutralist knows Mr. Friedman, if you run into him, please let him know, we have approved him for official Neutralist Groupie Status (NGS). We don't so honor just anyone. In fact, as evidence of our esteem, we are making it Platinum Neutralist Groupie Status (PNGS)